With the Round of 16 now completed, just eight teams remain in this World Cup, all of whom are capable of lifting the trophy on July 7th in Lyon. It's USA vs Europe at this point, with no teams from the other confederations remaining. We already know we will have one first-time semifinalist (Italy/Netherlands), so how will the old guard hold up? Here's what I think will go down.
Norway vs England, Thursday at 3:00 PM
This is a rematch of the 2015 Round of 16 in which the Three Lionesses progressed behind second-half goals from Steph Houghton and Lucy Bronze. Norway had to do it the hard way against Australia, and many will feel they were helped by a couple big VAR decisions; the handball decision right before halftime that was reversed, and the DOGSO red card which was upheld. England, on the other hand, did not need extra time to knock off Cameroon, but there was no shortage of drama in their match either. I would expect a low-scoring affair, as was the case in 2015, but England will have an advantage right off the bat in terms of freshness, with Norway having to win in extra time.
My prediction: England 2-1 Norway, for the second tournament in a row
France vs USA, Friday at 3:00 PM
France has beaten the USA in their last couple meetings, but who will step up when it counts? The US showed that they are vulnerable in their narrow win against Spain, and the weak links in their defense got exposed on several occasions. However, the US showed that they can rise to the occasion in these big tournaments. Think back to Abby Wambach pulling a rabbit out of her hat in 2011 to send the quarterfinal to Brazil to penalties, or the 2015 semifinals against Germany, who showed no signs of slowing down. This France side, while perfect so far, has shown they can be beat, and I second Megan Rapinoe's hopes that the match will be a "total shitshow circus." With a sellout crowd expected in Paris and two teams more than capable of winning it all, we should expect nothing less.
My prediction: USA 2-1 France in extra time
Italy vs Netherlands, Saturday at 9:00 AM
Many were not expecting Italy to even progress from the group stage (myself included), let alone making it just one win away from the semifinals, but by winning a group which included Australia and Brazil and knocking off a traditional powerhouse in China, the Azzurre are showing that they are not messing around. Neither are the Dutch, however, as they put an end to Japan's amazing knockout stage record (only one loss in their previous seven knockout stage games, and that was in the final). We still haven't seen the best of the van de Sanden/Miedema/Martens front three, but the Oranje have played very well as a unit.
My prediction: 3-2 Netherlands in extra time
Germany vs Sweden, Saturday at 3:00 PM
This is a rematch from both the 2015 Round of 16 and 2016 gold medal match, between two teams who are very familiar with each other, and the Germans have always had the Swedes' number, especially when it counts, and I'm expecting something similar here. Alex Popp is hitting her stride at the right time despite a slow start, and younger players like Lea Schüller have shown flashes in the first four games. Sweden are not known for scoring goals in bunches, and despite the 5-1 win over Thailand, that has shown in their first few games (2-0, 5-1, 0-2, 1-0). If the Swedes are able to play the game on their terms, they'll have a chance, but I see Germany in control for most of it.
My prediction: Germany 1-0 Sweden
European and North American soccer from a casual-but-not-so-casual fan's perspective.
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