Thursday, June 20, 2019

World Cup Grades (so far) and Knockout Round Predictions


The Women's World Cup has always been one of my favorite big international sporting events, and this one has delivered so far. Here's my grades for the teams so far and how I think the knockout rounds will play out.
Disclaimer: My grades are not just based on performance on paper, but also based on how they did versus the expectations before the tournament, hence the high grades for teams that didn't advance. 

Group A: 

1) France: A- (4-0 vs South Korea, 2-1 vs Norway, 1-0 vs Nigeria)

Qualified with few problems, but they have a tough Round of 16 match on their hands against Brazil. 

2) Norway: B+ (4-0 vs Nigeria, 1-2 vs France, 2-1 vs South Korea)

Played well considering the drama that surrounded the team during the tournament; now the real test begins. 

3) Nigeria: B+ (0-4 vs Norway, 2-0 vs South Korea, 0-1 vs France)

Justice was served after they qualified for the knockout stages, despite being cheated out of a point against France. 

4) South Korea: C (0-4 vs France, 0-2 vs Nigeria, 1-2 vs Norway)

Their fate was sealed after the first two matches, but they finished strong with a late flurry against Norway to get one back there.

Player of the Group: Wendi Rénard (France)


Group B: 

1) Germany: B+ (1-0 vs China, 1-0 vs Spain, 4-0 vs South Africa)

Finally broke open their dam of goals against South Africa, but will they play as free flowing in the knockout round as they did then? 

2) Spain: B- (3-1 vs South Africa, 0-1 vs Germany, 0-0 vs China)

Despite qualifying, they only scored one goal from open play, and Jenny Hermoso needs to get going if Spain wants any chance against the US. 

3) China: B- (0-1 vs Germany, 1-0 vs South Africa, 0-0 vs Spain)

Similar to Spain, they were average at best, and did not fully take advantage of their chance to build their goal difference against South Africa. 

4) South Africa: C+ (1-3 vs Spain, 0-1 vs China, 0-4 vs Germany)

Started strong against Spain and went downhill from there, but Thembi Kgatlana scored one of the goals of the tournament, with her chip against Spain. 

Player of the Group: Jenny Hermoso (Spain)

Group C: 

1) Italy: B+ (2-1 vs Australia, 5-0 vs Jamaica, 0-1 vs Brazil)

Surprised everyone by winning the group in their first appearance since 1999, but how much will they have left in the tank?

2) Australia: A- (1-2 vs Italy, 3-2 vs Brazil, 4-1 vs Jamaica)

Rebounded well after a rocky start, but they will go only as far as Sam Kerr takes them, which could either be in the final or an early exit.

3) Brazil: B- (3-0 vs Jamaica, 2-3 vs Australia, 1-0 vs Italy)

Probably the biggest under-performer of the tournament, they didn't do much more than what was expected of them, and they play France next.

4) Jamaica: B (0-3 vs Brazil, 0-5 vs Italy, 1-4 vs Australia)

Just being there was a great success for them, and they hung in well with Brazil and Australia. 

Player of the Group: Sam Kerr (Australia)

Group D:

1) England: A- (2-1 vs Scotland, 1-0 vs Argentina, 2-0 vs Japan)

Haven't seen them at their best but haven't seen them at their worst either, which makes their Round of 16 match against Cameroon interesting.

2) Japan: B (0-0 vs Argentina, 2-1 vs Scotland, 0-2 vs England)

Made it through, as was expected, but with players without much experience, they will need to play much better to reach the final for a third consecutive year.

3) Argentina: B+ (0-0 vs Japan, 0-1 vs England, 3-3 vs Scotland)

After years of inactivity, this group lifted themselves up to stay in contention, and while they didn't get the help they needed on the final day, they exceeded expectations and then some. 

4) Scotland: B- (1-2 vs England, 1-2 vs Japan, 3-3 vs Argentina)

Went from 100 to 0 in a matter of 16 minutes, but they have a lot to build on for future Euros and World Cups.

Player of the Group: Vanina Correa (Argentina)

Group E:

1) Netherlands: A- (1-0 vs New Zealand, 3-1 vs Cameroon, 2-1 vs Canada)

Silenced their critics with two strong performances to close out group play; now it's time for their stars to show up.

2) Canada: B (1-0 vs Cameroon, 2-0 vs New Zealand, 1-2 vs Netherlands)

Showed that the supporting cast around Christine Sinclair can get the job done, but now it's her turn to help this team advance.

3) Cameroon: B (0-1 vs Canada, 1-3 vs Netherlands, 2-1 vs New Zealand)

Bounced back when they had to from their two opening defeats, and now they have a chance to get one of the upsets of the tournament.

4) New Zealand: C (0-1 vs Netherlands, 0-2 vs Canada, 1-2 vs Cameroon)

This was the year for them to finally win a game at the World Cup, and they didn't even score a goal that wasn't an own goal.

Player of the Group: Ajara Nchout (Cameroon)

Group F: 

1) USA: A+ (13-0 vs Thailand, 3-0 vs Chile, 2-0 vs Sweden)

Got the job done and then some; just like France, the only problem for them is their matchup against Spain being a trap game.

2) Sweden: B (2-0 vs Chile, 5-1 vs Thailand, 0-2 vs USA)

Qualified as expected, but they will need to score more goals if they want to go far, and that hasn't always been a strength for them.

3) Chile: B (0-2 vs Sweden, 0-3 vs USA, 2-0 vs Thailand)

It came down to one penalty for them and they didn't convert it, but Christiane Endler's heroics against the US kept them in it until the very end.

4) Thailand: C (0-13 vs USA, 1-5 vs Sweden, 0-2 vs Chile)

Despite their shellacking against the US, the goal they scored against Sweden is not a moment anyone associated with the team will ever forget. 

Player of the Group: Christiane Endler (Chile)

Knockout round predictions:

Norway 1-2 Australia
England 2-1 Cameroon
France 2-2 Brazil (France wins on penalties)
Spain 0-2 USA
Italy 0-0 China (China wins on penalties)
Netherlands 2-1 Japan
Germany 3-1 Nigeria
Sweden 1-0 Canada

Quarterfinals (will predict exact scorelines after the Round of 16):

England vs Australia
France vs USA
China vs Netherlands
Germany vs Sweden

Semifinals:

Australia vs USA
Netherlands vs Germany

Final:

USA vs Germany

USA wins!

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